Falling onto to the Hard Concrete of the Coliseum: Oakland's Rotation Examination

This post comes a few days later than promised. I've been a bit despondent over the recent successes of the Mariners, and I kept myself busy with the Home Run Derby (congrats, Vlad!) and the All-Star Game. A side note on the latter: LaRussa was crazy not to pinch-hit Albert Pujols at the bottom of the ninth. What use is your stashing your best player in a reserve role for extra innings if you can't get into extra innings?

That said, this post begins the first in a three-part Rotation Examination among the true contenders in the AL West. A club's foundation is its starting rotation, its primary means of run prevention. A good rotation is what prevents slumps from running long and deep, and what separates ciphers from true contenders. A note: I'm going to limit my analysis to the first four starters of each rotation, as the fifth spot in each team's rotation has been subject to a frequently turning-revolving door.

It is appropriate, then, that the first victim will be the Halos' usual rivals, the Oakland Athletics. The A's have been, true to form, hit hard with injuries this season. However, their legendary depth may have finally failed them, as they are currently two games under .500. Their typically anemic offense has been especially devastated by injuries. The loss of Huston Street and Justin Duchscherer has turned the bullpen, which should be a reliable asset, into a liability. The green-and-gold starting five has been what has kept the club in contention, so it only makes sense to see how that rotation will fare in the second half. Without further ado:

Dan Haren

Year	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	ERC	BABIP	LD%	GB%	IF/F	HR/F	LOB%
2006	4.12	1.32	7.3	1.9	1.28	4.15	3.76	.292	19.0	45.3	11.7	14.3	72.2
2007	2.20	0.98	7.8	2.5	0.79	3.60	2.16	.237	15.2	42.6	12.3	8.2	78.0

Haren has stepped in admirably as the A’s ace after Zito’s exit and Rich Harden’s usual intimacy with the disabled list. Haren has pitched well this season and was (deservingly, I believe) named the American League starter for the All-Star Game. Can the boy from Monterey Park (where, coincidentally, I also grew up) continue his career year? If that incredibly low .237 BABIP and 3.60 FIP are any indication, yes, but probably not at such an elite clip. Those stats, in combination with a lower line drive rate, suggest that Haren has been more than a little lucky thus far. The low line drive rate, combined with a normal ground ball rate, imply that Haren is giving up more than his usual share of fly balls this season. However, his homer per flyball rate is half of what it was last season. Expect him to give up more homers in the second half, and sport ace-worthy but not quite Johan Santana-like numbers.

Chad Gaudin

Year	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	ERC	BABIP	LD%	GB%	IF/F	HR/F	LOB%
2006	3.09	1.45	5.0	5.9	0.42	4.67	3.67	.251	15.9	40.7	10.3	3.9	78.0
2007	2.88	1.37	5.6	3.0	0.41	3.90	3.61	.272	18.8	52.5	11.1	5.7	78.1

While Dan Haren is a fair bet for some regression, he’s not going to regress as much as Gaudin. Biggest indication? His fielding-independent ERA predicts an actual ERA a full point higher. The reason for that is, simply, that Gaudin’s high WHIP and milquetoast peripherals (especially his strikeout and walk rate) are not compatible with that low ERA. He has also managed to strand a lot of runners, a feat he likely cannot maintain given his low strikeout rate. His groundball rate is way above his career average, indicating that he’s giving up fewer flyballs than he has historically. He’ll probably give up more flyballs in the second half, and inevitably more of them will leave the park. Fremont expectations that Gaudin will form part of a new “Big Three” with Haren and Blanton are nothing more than a daydream. Expect Gaudin to come down to earth and sport a 4+ ERA at the end of the season.

Joe Blanton

Year	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	ERC	BABIP	LD%	GB%	IF/F	HR/F	LOB%
2006	4.82	1.54	4.8	2.6	0.77	4.21		.341	19.8	44.8	10.0	7.6	68.9
2007	3.09	1.04	6.1	1.8	0.76	3.92	2.43	.249	19.2	47.4	12.1	9.0	71.4

While Chad Gaudin is a mirage in the smog-filled Oakland skyline, Joe Blanton is the real thing. He sports a low walk rate this season despite an average strikeout rate. Blanton is a finesse/control pitcher who relies on pitching for contact and relying on his defense to make outs for him. Despite his success so far, Blanton can also expect to regress to the mean in the second half. His K/9 rate is a point higher and his walk rate a point lower than what would be expected, and his BABIP is a bit low. However, Blanton is allowing slightly more home runs per fly ball than usual and he’s stranding an average number of baserunners, which suggest he hasn’t been the recipient of too much luck. While he’s probably going to regress, he shouldn’t fall as hard as Gaudin. Expect an ERA in the high 3s or low 4s, Blanton to be the latter, but somewhat soft half of a nice 1-2 punch for the Oakland rotation.

Joe Kennedy

Year	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	ERC	BABIP	LD%	GB%	IF/F	HR/F	LOB%
2006	2.31	1.34	7.5	3.4	0.26	3.90	3.46	.317	20.0	48.6	9.1	3.4	81.5
2007	4.45	1.54	3.7	4.1	0.87	5.23	5.02	.288	14.8	49.2	10.9	9.3	73.8

While Blanton is a control artist, Joe Kennedy looks like a finesse pitcher experiencing major control problems. He has been awfully hittable, as his WHIP is just devastatingly, awfully high. He’s walking one more runner per game than is expected, and giving up more home runs per flyball than last season. Despite his troubles, he looks like he’s still having a bit of luck, as his line drive rate is much lower this season. It’s hard to compare Kenneyd’s numbers, as he was mostly a reliever for the A’s last season. Unfortunately for the Fremonters, Kennedy figures to be a 5th starter in the 4th spot of the rotation. Expect an ERA much closer to his FIP, in the low to mid 5s.

Conclusion
This is not your older brother's Athletics rotation, son. With Zito gone, the era of the "Big Three" of Zito, Hudson and Mulder is officially over. Dan Haren is a good pitcher worthy of the ace title, but his supporting cast leaves something to be desired. Joe Blanton is a number 3 pitcher in the number 2 spot, Chad Gaudin a number 4 or 5 itcher in the 3 spot, and so on. The club has been lucky thus far to ride a wave of rotation overachievement, but the club cannot realistically hope the good vibrations continue. Unless another part of the club--the offense, bullpen or defense--steps up, expect the A's to fall further into the depths of irrelevance as the whole of their rotation returns to earth.