A 3-2 Full Count: The Angels Rotation Examination

Light Up That Halo!'s Rotation Examination series turns to our very own Halos. The Angel rotation was tabbed in the preseason to be among the best in baseball and one of the team's pillars of strength. Many an article on ESPN or Sports Illustrated contained anonymous quotes by various GMs marveling at the fact that Joe Saunders, who would be a number three or four on many teams, could not even crack through the rotation.

Those prognostications were nothing more than speculation. A half-season later, it has become clear that three of the two starters--Lackey, Escobar and Weaver--have been very solid. The other two have been, frankly, a drag on the team. I was at Costco the day of Santana's final start, and a random man came up to me (I was wearing my Howie Kendrick shirt) and lamented that the Halos would probably lose that day with Santana on the mound. Colon and Santana have become so unreliable that there is a temptation to pencil their starts in as losses before the first pitch has even been thrown.

With the rest of the season remaining, let's see how the numbers indicate the rotation is faring.

John Lackey

Year	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	ERC	BABIP	LD%	GB%	IF/F	HR/F	LOB%
2006	3.56	1.26	7.9	3.0	0.59	3.41	3.61	.304	18.1	43.1	6.9	6.3	70.3
2007	2.98	1.16	7.6	2.4	0.81	3.75	3.22	.279	20.3	43.4	7.2	8.9	75.6

The Angels’ anointed ace and first-time All-Star is pitching well this season, mostly due to a more normal BABIP. Put simply, he’s been less unlucky than he was last season. His rate statistics are in line with expectations, and his home run rate is even higher than usual—expect that number to go down. Still, he’s stranding a high number of baserunners, suggesting that he’s going to have a bad outing every now and then when those runners actually do come home. His FIP is also a bit higher than his actual ERA, indicating that he's been leaning on his defense to make outs. However, any regression Lackey should experience would be minimal, especially since his ERC is only a tad higher than his actual ERA. His ERA at the end of the season will be closer to the mid-3s; ace-worthy and among the top ten in the American League, certainly, but perhaps not exactly Cy Young material.

Kelvim Escobar

Year	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	ERC	BABIP	LD%	GB%	IF/F	HR/F	LOB%
2006	3.61	1.28	7.2	2.4	0.83	3.70	3.68	.311	19.0	44.7	6.2	9.0	68.9
2007	3.04	1.14	7.8	2.7	0.50	3.18	2.78	.282	16.7	45.8	11.3	5.6	72.2

The big story this season in the Halo rotation has been the dominant first-half performance of Kelvim Escobar. Lackey may be the staff ace, but Kelvim deserves to be the co-ace if not a close #2 (not to mention the Halo's deserving but snubbed fourth All-Star). Myspacecobar’s strikeout and walk rate are in line with career averages, and his BABIP is about normal, suggesting that he's not a prime candidate for regression. His fielding-independent statistics are pretty close to his actual ERA, while his ERC is even lower. This is not an illusion; he's the real deal, folks. Kelvim's problem has never been his abilities, but rather his capacity to stay healthy. This year, happy Halo fans have been the recipients of the dominant moundsmanship that he can provide while healthy. One area of concern: Kelvim’s home run rate is about thirty points lower than his historical average. Expect him to give up more homers to even those numbers out, despite enjoying an ace-like, mid-3s ERA.

Jered Weaver

Year	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	ERC	BABIP	LD%	GB%	IF/F	HR/F	LOB%
2006	2.56	1.16	8.3	2.6	1.18	3.99	2.78	.236	17.8	30.0	14.0	10.1	86.2
2007	3.36	1.42	6.9	3.4	0.75	3.89	4.39	.306	18.0	35.5	12.6	7.0	74.9

It’s hard to compare Weaver-the-Younger’s current campaign with his incredibly successful rookie season. Few expected him to repeat with a sub-3.00 ERA, but many naysayers in the mainstream sports press picked Weaver to suffer a nasty sophomore slump. Weaver’s been in between those two extremes thus far. With a high WHIP rate he’s been pretty hittable, and a relatively high walk rate suggests he’s having some control problems. Anecdotally, I’ve seen two games Weaver has started this season in person, and early in games he consistently has to work from behind in the count. While he’s certainly had some struggles, he’s also been the victim of some bad luck, sporting a slightly high BABIP. Like Myspacecobar, Weaver’s home run rates are lower than expected, implying that he’s due for a bout of gopheritis at some point. Weaver is still a young guy and will eventually develop into a frontline starter, but for his sophomore season expect an ERA in the high-3s or low-4s. The Angels are incredibly fortunate to have a pitcher who would be the number two starter for most teams in their third slot.

Ervin Santana

Year	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	ERC	BABIP	LD%	GB%	IF/F	HR/F	LOB%
2006	4.28	1.23	6.4	3.2	0.96	4.38	2.78	.245	17.3	38.4	9.5	8.8	67.1
2007	6.22	1.62	6.7	3.2	1.76	5.70	5.73	.328	19.9	35.1	10.4	16.3	67.4

Santana has certainly been the most intriguing and frustrating of the Angels’ starters. Only one year after leading the team in wins, Santana began to carry his road splits home and was sent down to Utah to “find himself” after a disastrous outing against Tampa Bay. As far as I can tell, there are two causes for his problems. First, that high WHIP shows that Santana has been much, much more hittable this season. While that’s understandably important, the root of his problems are his home run rate. It’s staggering to see, but it’s almost twice as high as last year's mark. Correspondingly, twice as many of Santana’s fly balls are leaving the park. The fact that his strikeout and walk rates (not to mention fastball velocity) have been consistent from year-to-year dispels any concerns of injury or loss of command. I think he’s guilty of bad pitch selections that hitters are all too happy to take advantage of. An article from the OC Register claims that Santana, for whatever reason, has been trying expand his repertoire, and as a resort, may have been losing command of his established pitches. Whether that was the cause of his struggles or his attempt to adapt to them is unclear. Either way, here’s hoping that Santana can straighten himself out and make a strong and triumphant return to Anaheim later this season.

Bartolo Colon

Year	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	ERC	BABIP	LD%	GB%	IF/F	HR/F	LOB%
2005	3.48	1.16	6.6	1.8	1.10	3.28	4.10	.279	17.5	43.5	17.2	12.2	74.8
2007	6.38	1.63	6.3	2.3	1.60	5.19	6.49	.351	18.0	39.3	9.5	14.8	66.1

What a difference two years make--from Cy Young winner to an unreliable fifth starter. I had to use the numbers from Colon’s 2005 campaign because he spent much of the 2006 season on the disabled list. Like Santana, Colon has been much more hittable this season, sporting a sky-high 1.62 WHIP. Also similarly to Santana, Colon’s home run rate is fifty points higher than the previous year (though, interestingly, about in line with his dismal 2004 campaign). The similarities between the two end there. Colon’s strikeout rate has remained about the same but his walk rate is about five points higher. These trends are disturbing, but Bart is also sporting a Zeppelin-high BABIP and a decreased groundball rate, suggesting a bit of bad luck. While this could simply be a matter of luck, it is possible Colon is still pitching through the rotator cuff injury that derailed him last season. Anecdotally, he’s been a bit stubborn with his pitch selection and location, insisting on throwing fastballs even when they become predictable, and continuing to pound the corners even if the umpire isn’t giving it to him.

So What's the Diagnosis?
The three: Lackey and Escobar, both with no overwhleming signs of regression, promise to remain solid throughout the remainder of the season. Weaver, on the other hand, is a bit of a wild-card. If he continues to have control problems, he may have some struggles down the stretch. Alternatively, he could compensate for those problems and give the Angels a performance worthy of a number-two starter on most other teams.

The two: With Santana sent to Salt Lake for some self-realization, bullpen sessions and incense-burning, Joe Saunders will take his place in the rotation. How he will fare in the major leagues is difficult to predict. Saunders has not had a great season with the Bees thus far, although admittedly his numbers are skewed given the hitter-friendly nature of the California League. However, the starts he's provided when he was called up to spell an ailing starter have been solid. The half-season of starts he provided last year were exemplary and would have gotten more press had rotation-mate Jered Weaver made such an amazing rookie run. Not to stray from the sabermetric, but perhaps Saunders will steel himself since he has another extended shot in the bigs. With Colon a free agent after this season, and with the Angels unlikely to try to retain his services, it is almost a given that Saunders will be a full-time starter in 2008. Hopefully he'll provide the Halos with what they've been lacking--reliable production from the fourth spot--and create a half-season of success to build upon for next year.

Colon is more problematic than Santana because he is more difficult to send down. As a top-line free agent and a former Cy Young winner, the Halo front office would be hard-pressed to send him down to the minors. More likely, he will attempt to rectify his problems, be they injury-based or mechanical, in the major leagues. Hopefully for the Angels, who have been struggling as of late and have the surging Mariners in their rear-view mirrors, he'll settle in as at least a reliable starter if not the dominant pitcher he once was.