a good article about baseball managers

(this is cross-posted on Halos Heaven--it was originally a diary there, but I figured this is appropriate [in content and length] for LUTH)

I thought we could all use a break from this Shea Hillenbrand firestorm and appreciate what we have.

While admittedly a stathead, Chris Jaffe has written quite an article rating baseball managers. I'm not mathy enough to understand the methodology, but the top ten of managers from 2001-present looks like this, with the number being the number of victories added by the manger:

1. Lou Piniella +49
   
2. Ozzie Guillen +31
   
3. Ron Gardenhire +30
   
3. Mike Scioscia +30
   
5. Bobby Cox +25
   
6. Dusty Baker +23
   
7. Jack McKeon +16
   
8. Art Howe +16
   
9. Phil Garner +15
   
10. Jim Tracy +14

Notice Sosh's good standing.

Jaffe's analysis also gives some insight into the operational philosophy of the Angels:

...the Angels have had the same basic hitting approach under Scioscia: don't worry about homers and walks, just make contact and put the ball in play. In the last six years they've never been higher than 10th in homers. Meanwhile, they've been the hardest team in the AL to strike out three times, and constantly among the best in offensive K's. They're always in the bottom five in walks taken. Batting average is the centerpiece of their offense. Their rank in hits has been higher than their rank in runs 6 times in his 7 years. While consistent, it is by no means brilliant.

This makes sense. If you're a team (like the Halos) that emphasizes batting average, you're going to want your players to engage in small ball: hack away at pitches and wait till one of them is able to get a hit. Then, once they do, you want to be aggressive on the basepaths and make you get the most of that baserunner because there's no telling when your free-swinging players may get another hit to bring 'em home.

On the other hand, if you're a team like the Red Sox that emphasizes OBP, you're going to want to encourage your players to get on base in any way they can (be it hits or walks) and be conservative once they get there. That way, they won't create more outs because they're not getting caught stealing. Most importantly, they can increase the number of runs scored when your power hitters (Ortiz and Ramirez) jack one out of the park.

Another feature of the article that I thought was impressive was the fact that despite not following the Angels, Jaffe nailed the Angels' style of play on the head using statistics:

Their hitting serves to keep them in the game. I can't prove it, but my guess would be Scioscia's brand of contact hitting offense would also be one of the more consistent offensive strategies on a day-in, day-out basis. You're certainly not going to be as likely to blow people out, and if you can keep making contact you will get some balls to drop every game. It's the Chinese water torture method of hitting. Instead of the non-stop drip-drip-drip from the faucet, you get an onslaught of crack-crack-crack off the bats as they relentlessly try to make something happen...

Scioscia's Angels are designed to be tied 3-3 after seven innings of every game. Then he brings in that dynamite bullpen and shuts down the opposition while his hitters continue their Chinese batting torture. It ain't a complex strategy, but it works. Scioscia needs to make sure he keeps everyone playing hard, keeping their motivation, and handling his bullpen effectively. He's done a brilliant job of that. No wonder they have the rally monkey - this is a team designed to win late.

Read the entire article here (be sure to take a look at the Scioscia section):

Evaluating managers, part 3

Giants sign Planet Zito, $126 mil/7 yr deal

If I were a sought-after major league baseball free agent deciding which club to sign with, there would be four factors to consider:

1. Contract quality (how many years, how much money, club/player options, no-trade clauses, incentives)

2. Club's potency and likelihood of making the playoffs

3. Location

4. Existing relationships with other players or management staff

Today, the San Francisco Giants signed Barry Zito and his loopalicious curveball to a 7-year, $126 million contract (with an option for an eighth year and a full no-trade clause). If you are Zito, here is how those factors line up with the Giants:

1. Incredibly, friggingly awesome. He gets amazing job security with 7 years (eight with the option) and a full no-trade clause, and becomes the highest-paid pitcher in the history of the game. Even if he begins to decline (a likely prospect) it is Zito and Zito alone who will determine if he remains in Halloween colors.

2. Iffy. While the NL West is no longer the worst division in baseball (that honor belongs to the Senior Circuit's Central Division), it remains decidedly weak. The top three teams in the division (the Dodgers, Padres and Giants) have all made their share of moves this offseason. The Rockies and Diamondbacks have yet to make the drastic roster changes they require to be legitimate playoff contenders (however, the D-backs' youth and talent may make them one in a few years).

However, out of those three teams, you have to see the division as a race between the Dodgers and the Padres. Those two teams have either stayed the course (the Dodgers) or made marginal improvements (the Padres). Both of those teams ended the 2006 season with idential records while the Giants found themselves 11.5 games behind. The Giants have broken about even this offseason--they lost a good pitcher in Jason Schmidt, but gained another (albeit one who is lung-tighteningly expensive) in Barry Zito. They resigned the “other” big Barry in baseball, keeping in place the steroid-enhanced cap on their bottled elixir of veteran ineptitude.

3. After spending six years in Oakland with the Athletics, Zito is familiar with the frigid and moist Bay Area, and does not have to find a new place to live. He reportedly enjoys living in a large city, and while San Francisco is not the first- or second-largest media market in the country, it provides the glitz and glamour the quirky Zito desires.

4. None that I know of.

With that in mind, it appears that Zito’s priorities fell in the following order:

1, 3, 2, 4.

If winning a World Series were his primary priority (as he claimed in a San Francisco Chrnoicle article last week), he would have signed with the Mets or my Angels. The Mets made it to the ALCS last year, and the Angels have a decent shot of atoning for last season's embarrassing second-place finish. The Texas Rangers, while an improved club, still lack the pitching depth to seriously contend in the AL West (even after adding McCarthy and Gagne). Seattle? They won’t have a shot at a division title while GM Bill Bavasi continues to shatter the hopes and dreams of M’s fans with stupid trades.

Location would have been a wash—the Mets (it’s New York, duh) and Angels (Zito is from Southern California and his family still lives here) are as attractive as the Giants in that regard. This was the Texas Rangers’ greatest drawback—Arlington? I’m sorry. Seattle would have been a decent city for Zito to live and find his spiritual center. It worked for Kurt Cobain (well, at least he tried).

So if his eventual choice is any indication, Barry Zito cares most about location and money. While his addition to the San Francisco rotation makes that club more potent, it is unlikely that they’ll make another run for the World Series in the near future.

Blogspot breaks my heart

So about a week ago, I wrote a three page treatise on why the club will be fine next season and why the Speier signing is great (go bullpen!) and the Matthews, Jr. signing is moderately good (as opposed to completely disastrous, as so many in the Halosphere believe). However, blogspot, in its infinite wisdom, decided to magically and inexplicably delete that post after it enjoyed a life span of about four hours. Damn you, blogspot.

Finals are currently occupying most of my time (and AAW's as well, I'm sure, though he's something of a slacker so you can never tell) so it'll be mid-December before I can really post again. This also allows the Winter GM meeting in Orlando (or the Disneyworld Whack-off, as it may turn out to be for Bill Stonerman) to finish, so I'll talk about whatever happens then and there as well once this quarter ends.