T Minus 1 Hour and Tex is Gone--What Now?

I was getting pretty excited about a Stoneman trade for Mark Texiera over the weekend, even though it meant giving up a great 1B (albeit for something better) and one of the stop-gaps in our hole-y rotation. The benefits outweighed the costs, to be sure. Unfortunately, Texas is idiotic (or not, depending on how you think they should view inter-division trading) and decided to except much less for him from Atlanta. Atlanta, too, is rather stupid in this deal, as they're essentially renting Tex for a year and a half, and I haven't seen any particular evidence that he's going to do well in the National League.
So here's what I love about our General Manager--I posted this on Halos Heaven last night, so for readers from over there, please forgive the repeat:

"Is that he finally realizes something needs to be done, only after watching a month and a half of ineptitude. Then he gets ONE big trade stuck in his mind, and when that falls through he essentially gives up, saying "we're good enough as is," after ONE excellent series, taking confidence in 3 games and ignoring the other 30 that preceded, and banking on the wish that we'll miraculously return to May form and win every single one of the last 58 games. He then completely closes up shop just in time for us to start sucking again."


Now, the question may be asked (and HAS been asked by astute HH readers every time I pose this complaint), "What would you have him do? It's not as though there are any other options out there." Wrong. Part of the reason generic fans are not general managers is that they don't have HALF the resources someone like Bill Stoneman and his staff have. It's his JOB to get CREATIVE every now and then--we clearly need something, and that doesn't necessarily mean "shuffling bodies around" as Stoneman seems to think it does (http://losangeles.angels.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070730&content_id=2119293&vkey=news_ana&fext=.jsp&c_id=ana).

So. I've thought through this a bit, and here's a few trades that have been rumored, and that would make a great deal of sense for the Angels. Note that some of these guys are already off the market due to other trades, but in their cases it seems pretty clear that Stoneman didn't even think to pursue them.

1. Mark Texiera. Obvious, and we don't need to go here. This, again, is the one trade Stoneman actually DID try, and he put forth a good effort. Part of me has to wonder, however, if he simply threw his hands in the air and gave up after Texas tried for one of Nick Adenhart or Howie Kendrick. THINK, Bill--didn't you just give up our best defensive catcher for a pitching prospect that's going to do jack for the Angels, but would be a great asset for the Rangers pen sometime in the future?? Don't you have a surplus of SS prospects in AA and AAA-ball? Have you even heard of Sean Rodriguez and Statia? No? How about Terry Evans?

LIKELIHOOD: The Rangers are idiots and the Braves too desperate. Might I add that the Braves are now the offseason Cubs of the 2007 trading deadline?

2. Mike Piazza. I really, really like this idea though it will probably never happen. The negative is that Piazza would be taking up the DH spot, but that's just about the only bad thing for this deal. Think about it: Piazza has KILLED the ball at Angel stadium this year (BAA over .400, I think)--true, he might just see the ball exceptionally well off of Angel pitching, but I still believe it's worth something. He would certainly provide a good degree of protection behind Vlad. Additionally, he can still make appearances behind the plate when necessary--and wouldn't you rather have a lock for the Hall of Fame backing up Jeff Mathis while Napoli is out indefinitely (those hamstring injuries are a real pain, apparently), as opposed to Ryan Budde? He's also got an OPS+ of 112, which is not fantastic per se, but very solid. I imagine a package of middle relief/set-up prospects (Arredondo?) or a future Bobby Crosby replacement (Sean Rodriguez?) would work for Beane. As an added bonus, Piazza'll be gone into Free Agency by the time the other Mike is fully recovered. And won't we get the compensatory draft picks for him?

LIKELIHOOD: Possible, if Stoneman hasn't completely closed shop by now, which he probably has.

3. Jermaine Dye. Not a huge fan of this one. True, he's been hitting better recently and can have a monster OPS+ when on the top of his game, but where do we put him? I don't want him replacing Willits in LF, and he likely can't DH. Perhaps we could put Vlad at permanent DH duties for the rest of the year and stick Jermaine in right. The other question, of course, is who would we have to give up for him?

LIKELIHOOD: Seemed that there was some possibility of this happening, but the Red Sox have effectively quashed that.

4. Troy Glaus. This would be a FANTASTIC trade, were it to go down. I imagine a package similar to what we put together for Texas would work here, perhaps with the addition of another A or AA level pitching prospect. True, Stoneman would perhaps look weak to the fans on this (for having let Troy go in the first place), but a General Manager's job is to make his (or her, to be completely PC here) team better, not to worry about what the fans are going to think of him for a particular deal (and no, that's not ironic in this context).

LIKELIHOOD: Fairly likely, if Stoneman gets his shit together within the next hour.

5. Jon Garland. This would nicely plug the hole in our rotation and provide a quality upgrade to the DL'd Bartolo Colon and, yes, Ervin Santana. Moseley's done an admirable job so far in his spot starts, but we really do need something more long term than that--and Dustin's better out of the bullpen than in the back of the rotation. Still, I don't see this happening. I think a package of Morales and Aybar, maybe with Terry Evans, could get this done.

LIKELIHOOD: For some reason, I really don't see this happening. Garland's not really the Angel type.

6. Morgan Ensberg. Would definitely be a cheap pick-up, and could provide a much needed SLG boost at third if he's healthy and returns to form. Still, I'd be very wary of displacing the streaking Chone Figgins for a guy who may turn out like Shea Hillenbrand. This would be a smart move if earlier in the season.

7. Carl Crawford. Another smart move, but there's really no place for him to go. Essentially a Willits with slightly more power.

So that's basically it. I will concede here that Stoneman is essentially right, to a degree--the team we have RIGHT NOW is probably good ENOUGH to get to October. But we're not going ANYWHERE in October unless teams that we're likely to face similarly don't do anything. And let's see, Bill--who are we likely to face? The Red Sox, Tigers, Mariners (it could happen if they win the Wild Card), Indians, Dodgers, and Braves. All of whom have made SIGNIFICANT moves at the deadline that have significantly STRENGTHENED them. I don't know about you, Bill, but I want to win the WS, and I certainly do NOT want a repeat of the debacle that was the 2004 ALDS sweep at the hands of the Red Sox.

It's go time.

Mourning for Jose--And a hiatus

In terms of stepping up, I've been following the Halos from Germany for roughly the past two weeks. I can only hope that it is my absence that has resulted in such team failures and that upon my return the Angels will not lose a single game the rest of the way.

As with any latter half of July, the trade rumors are swirling. Fans are demanding that Bill Stoneman "do something" about our offensive woes and our not so impressive new record for most consecutive innings without a homerun (and I worry that now we've had TWO in the last two games Bill will declare the situation cured). The LA Times and various other SoCal news services report that Stoney is indeed working the phones. But what has he done so far?

TRADED PERHAPS OUR BEST DEFENSIVE CATCHER FOR A MEDIOCRE RELIEF PITCHER. Now I know Jose couldn't really hit. But he called a damn good game, especially for the not so reliable pitchers such as Bartolo Colon (who also may be departing soon, but that's an entirely different kind of flying, all together ["that's an entirely different kind of flying"]). Now he's being replaced with Jeff Mathis, who I might add apparently cannot hit to save his life. I'm sorry, but we would have been much better off letting Jose go into Free Agency (if that!) and letting Jeffrey attempt to hone his "skills" in AAA.

I can see how trading Jose makes sense. But this club needs help NOW, and this move doesn't do ANYTHING towards that end. If we had packaged Molina with a good prospect (Bulger? Wilson? Statia?) and landed bullpen help, or even if we had gotten straight-up a strong outfield prospect with good power (even if he was a year or two away), then saying farewell to Jose would have been bittersweet but a decent move overall.

Instead, we've thoroughly damaged ourselves.

As I said above, with Wraith gone for a while and me not back in the U.S. for another two days, LUTH is going to have to go on temporary hiatus. Check for updates on the weekend!

That Halo is Dimmed...and a Hiatus

For those of you who've never been to the ESPN SportsZone in Downtown Disney, from the outside, it seems like a pretty nifty place. Rob Fukizaki always makes his Lakers postgame reports with James Worthy and other notables from that small studio they have there (supposedly the set is a bit undersized to exaggerate everyone's size...basketball players and their egos). I went there with my cousin on the way down from LA to catch the second half of the first game against the Twinkies, and was disappointed by what I found. My cousin had told me, rather glowingly, that they had an "awesome" projection-screen TV that they played games on, aside from literally a dozen screens with every game in the majors playing.

The TV was as advertised. The players were basically life-sized. But one would expect that, just a few miles from Angel Stadium, in a facility owned by a media conglomerate that once owned the Angels, that they would put the Halos front and center on the large TV. Nyet, my son. Instead some genius decided that the Mariners-Blue Jays game was more worthwhile. Beside the stomach pains I got from watching the Mariners win yet another game, I also had to squint just to see the Angels lose to the "Piranhas" that was playing on one of the small screens I thought would have been reserved for "other," non-local games.

Once I suffered through near-heartache of watching J.J. Putz continue his streak of perfect save opportunities, we were treated to the insult of the main screen switching over to the Dodger pregame show on KCAL. Excuse me? Are we across the street from the Ravine? What is the deal? The place was populated with plenty of people wearing Angels red, be it in t-shirt or cap form, so I know I'm not crazy when I say--you are not catering to your local constituency! I don't know what genius decided it would be good policy to shun the Halos in the heart of Anaheim, but I don't plan on going back to the SportsZone anytime soon.

Regarding the game itself: what is there to say? In the Angels' Rotation Examination below, I said that Escobar deserves to be considered the club's co-ace, but at this point he may deserve to be the only holder of that title. Lackey is supposed to be a stopper, the guy you lean on to stop slides and give the club a chance to turn things around. Instead, Lackey has put on a demonstration of first-inning "Lackey Innings" in his past two starts. The offense was able to bail him out in his last precarious start against Texas, but when you give up seven runs (admittedly "only" five were earned, though) it's difficult to repeat that.

The team is in a bit of a jam, to say the least, and I pray that Scioscia or one of the veterans in the clubhouse steps up to try and kick the team out of this funk. I probably won't be able to personally see how that plays out, though, as I'm leaving for New York tomorrow evening to visit some friends (and to take advantage to see the House that Ruth Built before they stop using it). I may be able to sneak a blog entry here and there, but likely LUTH will be quiet on my end for about a week. AAW, time for you to step up.

A 3-2 Full Count: The Angels Rotation Examination

Light Up That Halo!'s Rotation Examination series turns to our very own Halos. The Angel rotation was tabbed in the preseason to be among the best in baseball and one of the team's pillars of strength. Many an article on ESPN or Sports Illustrated contained anonymous quotes by various GMs marveling at the fact that Joe Saunders, who would be a number three or four on many teams, could not even crack through the rotation.

Those prognostications were nothing more than speculation. A half-season later, it has become clear that three of the two starters--Lackey, Escobar and Weaver--have been very solid. The other two have been, frankly, a drag on the team. I was at Costco the day of Santana's final start, and a random man came up to me (I was wearing my Howie Kendrick shirt) and lamented that the Halos would probably lose that day with Santana on the mound. Colon and Santana have become so unreliable that there is a temptation to pencil their starts in as losses before the first pitch has even been thrown.

With the rest of the season remaining, let's see how the numbers indicate the rotation is faring.

John Lackey

Year	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	ERC	BABIP	LD%	GB%	IF/F	HR/F	LOB%
2006	3.56	1.26	7.9	3.0	0.59	3.41	3.61	.304	18.1	43.1	6.9	6.3	70.3
2007	2.98	1.16	7.6	2.4	0.81	3.75	3.22	.279	20.3	43.4	7.2	8.9	75.6

The Angels’ anointed ace and first-time All-Star is pitching well this season, mostly due to a more normal BABIP. Put simply, he’s been less unlucky than he was last season. His rate statistics are in line with expectations, and his home run rate is even higher than usual—expect that number to go down. Still, he’s stranding a high number of baserunners, suggesting that he’s going to have a bad outing every now and then when those runners actually do come home. His FIP is also a bit higher than his actual ERA, indicating that he's been leaning on his defense to make outs. However, any regression Lackey should experience would be minimal, especially since his ERC is only a tad higher than his actual ERA. His ERA at the end of the season will be closer to the mid-3s; ace-worthy and among the top ten in the American League, certainly, but perhaps not exactly Cy Young material.

Kelvim Escobar

Year	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	ERC	BABIP	LD%	GB%	IF/F	HR/F	LOB%
2006	3.61	1.28	7.2	2.4	0.83	3.70	3.68	.311	19.0	44.7	6.2	9.0	68.9
2007	3.04	1.14	7.8	2.7	0.50	3.18	2.78	.282	16.7	45.8	11.3	5.6	72.2

The big story this season in the Halo rotation has been the dominant first-half performance of Kelvim Escobar. Lackey may be the staff ace, but Kelvim deserves to be the co-ace if not a close #2 (not to mention the Halo's deserving but snubbed fourth All-Star). Myspacecobar’s strikeout and walk rate are in line with career averages, and his BABIP is about normal, suggesting that he's not a prime candidate for regression. His fielding-independent statistics are pretty close to his actual ERA, while his ERC is even lower. This is not an illusion; he's the real deal, folks. Kelvim's problem has never been his abilities, but rather his capacity to stay healthy. This year, happy Halo fans have been the recipients of the dominant moundsmanship that he can provide while healthy. One area of concern: Kelvim’s home run rate is about thirty points lower than his historical average. Expect him to give up more homers to even those numbers out, despite enjoying an ace-like, mid-3s ERA.

Jered Weaver

Year	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	ERC	BABIP	LD%	GB%	IF/F	HR/F	LOB%
2006	2.56	1.16	8.3	2.6	1.18	3.99	2.78	.236	17.8	30.0	14.0	10.1	86.2
2007	3.36	1.42	6.9	3.4	0.75	3.89	4.39	.306	18.0	35.5	12.6	7.0	74.9

It’s hard to compare Weaver-the-Younger’s current campaign with his incredibly successful rookie season. Few expected him to repeat with a sub-3.00 ERA, but many naysayers in the mainstream sports press picked Weaver to suffer a nasty sophomore slump. Weaver’s been in between those two extremes thus far. With a high WHIP rate he’s been pretty hittable, and a relatively high walk rate suggests he’s having some control problems. Anecdotally, I’ve seen two games Weaver has started this season in person, and early in games he consistently has to work from behind in the count. While he’s certainly had some struggles, he’s also been the victim of some bad luck, sporting a slightly high BABIP. Like Myspacecobar, Weaver’s home run rates are lower than expected, implying that he’s due for a bout of gopheritis at some point. Weaver is still a young guy and will eventually develop into a frontline starter, but for his sophomore season expect an ERA in the high-3s or low-4s. The Angels are incredibly fortunate to have a pitcher who would be the number two starter for most teams in their third slot.

Ervin Santana

Year	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	ERC	BABIP	LD%	GB%	IF/F	HR/F	LOB%
2006	4.28	1.23	6.4	3.2	0.96	4.38	2.78	.245	17.3	38.4	9.5	8.8	67.1
2007	6.22	1.62	6.7	3.2	1.76	5.70	5.73	.328	19.9	35.1	10.4	16.3	67.4

Santana has certainly been the most intriguing and frustrating of the Angels’ starters. Only one year after leading the team in wins, Santana began to carry his road splits home and was sent down to Utah to “find himself” after a disastrous outing against Tampa Bay. As far as I can tell, there are two causes for his problems. First, that high WHIP shows that Santana has been much, much more hittable this season. While that’s understandably important, the root of his problems are his home run rate. It’s staggering to see, but it’s almost twice as high as last year's mark. Correspondingly, twice as many of Santana’s fly balls are leaving the park. The fact that his strikeout and walk rates (not to mention fastball velocity) have been consistent from year-to-year dispels any concerns of injury or loss of command. I think he’s guilty of bad pitch selections that hitters are all too happy to take advantage of. An article from the OC Register claims that Santana, for whatever reason, has been trying expand his repertoire, and as a resort, may have been losing command of his established pitches. Whether that was the cause of his struggles or his attempt to adapt to them is unclear. Either way, here’s hoping that Santana can straighten himself out and make a strong and triumphant return to Anaheim later this season.

Bartolo Colon

Year	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	ERC	BABIP	LD%	GB%	IF/F	HR/F	LOB%
2005	3.48	1.16	6.6	1.8	1.10	3.28	4.10	.279	17.5	43.5	17.2	12.2	74.8
2007	6.38	1.63	6.3	2.3	1.60	5.19	6.49	.351	18.0	39.3	9.5	14.8	66.1

What a difference two years make--from Cy Young winner to an unreliable fifth starter. I had to use the numbers from Colon’s 2005 campaign because he spent much of the 2006 season on the disabled list. Like Santana, Colon has been much more hittable this season, sporting a sky-high 1.62 WHIP. Also similarly to Santana, Colon’s home run rate is fifty points higher than the previous year (though, interestingly, about in line with his dismal 2004 campaign). The similarities between the two end there. Colon’s strikeout rate has remained about the same but his walk rate is about five points higher. These trends are disturbing, but Bart is also sporting a Zeppelin-high BABIP and a decreased groundball rate, suggesting a bit of bad luck. While this could simply be a matter of luck, it is possible Colon is still pitching through the rotator cuff injury that derailed him last season. Anecdotally, he’s been a bit stubborn with his pitch selection and location, insisting on throwing fastballs even when they become predictable, and continuing to pound the corners even if the umpire isn’t giving it to him.

So What's the Diagnosis?
The three: Lackey and Escobar, both with no overwhleming signs of regression, promise to remain solid throughout the remainder of the season. Weaver, on the other hand, is a bit of a wild-card. If he continues to have control problems, he may have some struggles down the stretch. Alternatively, he could compensate for those problems and give the Angels a performance worthy of a number-two starter on most other teams.

The two: With Santana sent to Salt Lake for some self-realization, bullpen sessions and incense-burning, Joe Saunders will take his place in the rotation. How he will fare in the major leagues is difficult to predict. Saunders has not had a great season with the Bees thus far, although admittedly his numbers are skewed given the hitter-friendly nature of the California League. However, the starts he's provided when he was called up to spell an ailing starter have been solid. The half-season of starts he provided last year were exemplary and would have gotten more press had rotation-mate Jered Weaver made such an amazing rookie run. Not to stray from the sabermetric, but perhaps Saunders will steel himself since he has another extended shot in the bigs. With Colon a free agent after this season, and with the Angels unlikely to try to retain his services, it is almost a given that Saunders will be a full-time starter in 2008. Hopefully he'll provide the Halos with what they've been lacking--reliable production from the fourth spot--and create a half-season of success to build upon for next year.

Colon is more problematic than Santana because he is more difficult to send down. As a top-line free agent and a former Cy Young winner, the Halo front office would be hard-pressed to send him down to the minors. More likely, he will attempt to rectify his problems, be they injury-based or mechanical, in the major leagues. Hopefully for the Angels, who have been struggling as of late and have the surging Mariners in their rear-view mirrors, he'll settle in as at least a reliable starter if not the dominant pitcher he once was.

Howie to the DL, Wood to the bigs

The LA Times is reporting that second baseman Howie Kendrick will be placed on the disabled list retroactive to July 8. Kendrick has a slight fracture in his right index finger from "swinging the bat" during the team's last visit to Arlington. In his place, the team will call up top prospect Brandon Wood.

Understandably, Erick Aybar should be spelling Howie, but with Aybar spending time on the DL with his own fracture (but his of the wrist variety), the club is reaching the depths of its ability to respond to injury. Maicer Izturis should see most of the time at third, but Wood's presence is interesting. Perhaps the Halos intend to move Figgy over to second and give Wood some time at third base? Such a decision would be adventurous, as Figgy's glove, while serviceable, would be more of a liability at the much more difficult second base position. More likely, Wood will ride the pine and get pinch-hit opportunities every now and then. I don't see the wisdom of such usage, since the club's top prospect requires regular at-bats to continue his development. Be still my heart--perhaps he will serve as DH and prevent Garret Anderson from getting at-bats.

Either way, make no mistake folks. This Wood kid is the club's future. He is a slugger in the mold of Troy Glaus. If the team does not sign Alex Rodriguez in the offseason, Wood will one day (hopefully soon!) provide the power at third base that this team so desperately needs. Now if only he could cut down on his rather generous strikeout rate...

On a separate note, be sure to read the Athletic's Rotation Examination below!

Falling onto to the Hard Concrete of the Coliseum: Oakland's Rotation Examination

This post comes a few days later than promised. I've been a bit despondent over the recent successes of the Mariners, and I kept myself busy with the Home Run Derby (congrats, Vlad!) and the All-Star Game. A side note on the latter: LaRussa was crazy not to pinch-hit Albert Pujols at the bottom of the ninth. What use is your stashing your best player in a reserve role for extra innings if you can't get into extra innings?

That said, this post begins the first in a three-part Rotation Examination among the true contenders in the AL West. A club's foundation is its starting rotation, its primary means of run prevention. A good rotation is what prevents slumps from running long and deep, and what separates ciphers from true contenders. A note: I'm going to limit my analysis to the first four starters of each rotation, as the fifth spot in each team's rotation has been subject to a frequently turning-revolving door.

It is appropriate, then, that the first victim will be the Halos' usual rivals, the Oakland Athletics. The A's have been, true to form, hit hard with injuries this season. However, their legendary depth may have finally failed them, as they are currently two games under .500. Their typically anemic offense has been especially devastated by injuries. The loss of Huston Street and Justin Duchscherer has turned the bullpen, which should be a reliable asset, into a liability. The green-and-gold starting five has been what has kept the club in contention, so it only makes sense to see how that rotation will fare in the second half. Without further ado:

Dan Haren

Year	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	ERC	BABIP	LD%	GB%	IF/F	HR/F	LOB%
2006	4.12	1.32	7.3	1.9	1.28	4.15	3.76	.292	19.0	45.3	11.7	14.3	72.2
2007	2.20	0.98	7.8	2.5	0.79	3.60	2.16	.237	15.2	42.6	12.3	8.2	78.0

Haren has stepped in admirably as the A’s ace after Zito’s exit and Rich Harden’s usual intimacy with the disabled list. Haren has pitched well this season and was (deservingly, I believe) named the American League starter for the All-Star Game. Can the boy from Monterey Park (where, coincidentally, I also grew up) continue his career year? If that incredibly low .237 BABIP and 3.60 FIP are any indication, yes, but probably not at such an elite clip. Those stats, in combination with a lower line drive rate, suggest that Haren has been more than a little lucky thus far. The low line drive rate, combined with a normal ground ball rate, imply that Haren is giving up more than his usual share of fly balls this season. However, his homer per flyball rate is half of what it was last season. Expect him to give up more homers in the second half, and sport ace-worthy but not quite Johan Santana-like numbers.

Chad Gaudin

Year	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	ERC	BABIP	LD%	GB%	IF/F	HR/F	LOB%
2006	3.09	1.45	5.0	5.9	0.42	4.67	3.67	.251	15.9	40.7	10.3	3.9	78.0
2007	2.88	1.37	5.6	3.0	0.41	3.90	3.61	.272	18.8	52.5	11.1	5.7	78.1

While Dan Haren is a fair bet for some regression, he’s not going to regress as much as Gaudin. Biggest indication? His fielding-independent ERA predicts an actual ERA a full point higher. The reason for that is, simply, that Gaudin’s high WHIP and milquetoast peripherals (especially his strikeout and walk rate) are not compatible with that low ERA. He has also managed to strand a lot of runners, a feat he likely cannot maintain given his low strikeout rate. His groundball rate is way above his career average, indicating that he’s giving up fewer flyballs than he has historically. He’ll probably give up more flyballs in the second half, and inevitably more of them will leave the park. Fremont expectations that Gaudin will form part of a new “Big Three” with Haren and Blanton are nothing more than a daydream. Expect Gaudin to come down to earth and sport a 4+ ERA at the end of the season.

Joe Blanton

Year	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	ERC	BABIP	LD%	GB%	IF/F	HR/F	LOB%
2006	4.82	1.54	4.8	2.6	0.77	4.21		.341	19.8	44.8	10.0	7.6	68.9
2007	3.09	1.04	6.1	1.8	0.76	3.92	2.43	.249	19.2	47.4	12.1	9.0	71.4

While Chad Gaudin is a mirage in the smog-filled Oakland skyline, Joe Blanton is the real thing. He sports a low walk rate this season despite an average strikeout rate. Blanton is a finesse/control pitcher who relies on pitching for contact and relying on his defense to make outs for him. Despite his success so far, Blanton can also expect to regress to the mean in the second half. His K/9 rate is a point higher and his walk rate a point lower than what would be expected, and his BABIP is a bit low. However, Blanton is allowing slightly more home runs per fly ball than usual and he’s stranding an average number of baserunners, which suggest he hasn’t been the recipient of too much luck. While he’s probably going to regress, he shouldn’t fall as hard as Gaudin. Expect an ERA in the high 3s or low 4s, Blanton to be the latter, but somewhat soft half of a nice 1-2 punch for the Oakland rotation.

Joe Kennedy

Year	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	ERC	BABIP	LD%	GB%	IF/F	HR/F	LOB%
2006	2.31	1.34	7.5	3.4	0.26	3.90	3.46	.317	20.0	48.6	9.1	3.4	81.5
2007	4.45	1.54	3.7	4.1	0.87	5.23	5.02	.288	14.8	49.2	10.9	9.3	73.8

While Blanton is a control artist, Joe Kennedy looks like a finesse pitcher experiencing major control problems. He has been awfully hittable, as his WHIP is just devastatingly, awfully high. He’s walking one more runner per game than is expected, and giving up more home runs per flyball than last season. Despite his troubles, he looks like he’s still having a bit of luck, as his line drive rate is much lower this season. It’s hard to compare Kenneyd’s numbers, as he was mostly a reliever for the A’s last season. Unfortunately for the Fremonters, Kennedy figures to be a 5th starter in the 4th spot of the rotation. Expect an ERA much closer to his FIP, in the low to mid 5s.

Conclusion
This is not your older brother's Athletics rotation, son. With Zito gone, the era of the "Big Three" of Zito, Hudson and Mulder is officially over. Dan Haren is a good pitcher worthy of the ace title, but his supporting cast leaves something to be desired. Joe Blanton is a number 3 pitcher in the number 2 spot, Chad Gaudin a number 4 or 5 itcher in the 3 spot, and so on. The club has been lucky thus far to ride a wave of rotation overachievement, but the club cannot realistically hope the good vibrations continue. Unless another part of the club--the offense, bullpen or defense--steps up, expect the A's to fall further into the depths of irrelevance as the whole of their rotation returns to earth.

A Pinch of Shame and a Dash of Anxiety

At the end of the last season, many in the Halosphere openly opined that, had the Mariners held their weight against the A's, the Angels may well have won a third straight division title.

As we've learned recently, be careful what you wish for.

I slept late on Saturday night and woke up early on Sunday morning, so by the time 10 AM rolled around, I was thoroughly beat. I watched enough of the first inning of the final game in the Bronx to see Santana give up a run and a three-run jack to Matsui. I was fortunate enough to sleep through most of the rest of the game, but I awoke just in time to see the Halos flail away in futility. The shutout was one of the worst the club has suffered in the past few decades.

Unfortunately that blowout coincided with the (symbolic) end of the first half of the season, as today is the first day of the All-Star Break. It could not have come at a better time. The Angels seems to be able to do nothing right, and those annoying pipsqueaks in Seattle think that their mediocre club is shaping up to be a contender. On Lookout Landing, the Mariner faithful are indulging in more than a bit of hubris, relishing in a nice little run that coincides with a Halo slump. Some are even go so far to discuss what their postseason rotation will look like once they can add the "2007 AL Western Division Champion" pennants to Safeco.

Methinks they jump to conclusions. Yes, it is true that the Mariners are doing quite well at the moment--better than anyone, including their own fans, could have expected. But if there is one constant in baseball, it is the law of regression to the mean. Put simply, a team or individual player that is performing either incredibly well or astoundingly poorly will respectively return to earth or bounce back. Sabermetrics founder Bill James calls this the "plexiglass principle," and in his quest to understand it, he developed the concept of the pythagorean expectation. James found that the ratio of runs scored to runs allowed was a powerful way of predicting a team's winning percentage. Through the beginning of the All-Star Break, the picture in the AL West looks like this (using Baseball Prospectus's Pythagport system):

Team             W    L       RS   RA  W1   L1  Diff
Athletics        44.  43.    377  350 46.8 40.2 -2.8
Angels           53.  34.    435  377 49.7 37.4 +3.3
Mariners         47.  36.    413  404 42.7 40.3 +4.3
Rangers          37.  50.    438  479 40.0 46.9 -3.0

RS stands for runs scored, RA stands for runs allowed, and W1/L1 stand for the team's expected win/loss record given their RS/RA scores. Diff indicates the difference between the actual value and the expected value.

The Pythagport data indicates that the Angels and Mariners have been playing better than expected, the latter more so. It also shows that the A's and Rangers have been underperforming.

What does this mean practically? This explains in some part why the Angels have hit a skid recently--it's nothing more than the universe/God/the baseball deities moving the Halos back towards mean. Hopefully the Mariners also see a bit of slide after the All-Star break. This also means that we can expect the A's to make their typical post-break surge back into contention.

This does not mean that complete faith should be put in the expectation. Teams often end entire seasons with records that differ from their expectations. What could explain this differential? The two accepted stories are luck and bullpens. The latter affects the distribution of runs. Because a game's outcome is binary, one measly run could make the difference between victory and defeat in a single game. The bullpen determines whether or not that run is scored.

How have the bullpens in the AL West fared thus far?

Team ERA
Angels 3.91
Athletics 4.29
Mariners 3.40
Rangers 3.51

For a club that puts so much stock in its bullpen, it is somewhat surprising that the Angels bullpen is the third-worst in the division. It also helps explain why the Mariners have been able to make a run thus far. Their increased offensive production, combined with an effective bullpen means that they can outscore their opponents and then hold onto leads after the starters are pulled. They have managed to accomplish this despite having awful defense and awful starting pitching, which I will discuss on Tuesday.

The Halos, on the other hand, have had their recent run fueled completely by the offense. This is not to say that the club is one-dimensional; Halo starting pitching and defense has remained at least above-average. Once the offense cooled off (a development that was not unexpected with several players, especially Cabrera and Willits, playing at unexpectedly productive levels), the team has reverted to something more along the lines predicted by the pythagorean expectation.

The bottom line is that the Halos should be in fine shape. Their rotation and defense will (hopefully) ensure that the regression to the mean that the team is in the throes of should be short. The Mariners, on the other hand, have no such safety net. Once their offense cools off, their starting and pitching will not be able to pick the up, and a bullpen cannot erase runs allowed by the starter.

Later today, I'll start the first examination of the three contenders in the AL West with our very own Halos.

Some Additional Data for Week 14's Playoff Readiness Check

For those of you who are just tuning in, I'm going to make a weekly check of the Angels' readiness for the playoffs. Someone on Halos Heaven that I include the current data for other likely contenders, so here goes. You can find the original thread here, including the Halos' data and explanations for each of the categories.

Detroit Tigers
Closer WXRL: Todd Jones, 0.509 wins, 24th among closers

Strikeout Rate: 6.40 K/9, 19th in the majors

FRAA: 3 runs, tied for 12th in the majors

One of my good friend Julian's favorite pastimes is poking fun at Todd Jones. With a 5.35 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP, it's easy to see why. The data clearly reflects that, as Todd Jones is in the closer cellar. Joel Zumaya would be an incredible upgrade if he were able to play GuitarHero, but the Tigers' bullpen current, woeful state makes him the best option. The Tigers defense is nothing to write home about, and while everyone raves about the Tiger pitching staff, it appears that they rely more on the flyout and groundout. Bonderman and Verlander are strikeout machines, but after that the highest K/9 rate for Tiger starters is Andrew Miller and Kenny Rogers with 6.1.

What is keeping the Tigers in contention? Their offense, easily. They lead all of baseball in runs scored with 503. Whenever their pitching and defense fail to make par, their bats can bail the team out and push enough runs past the plate to win. Will this translate well in the playoffs? Not necessarily, according to Silver and Perry. No offensive categories had a particularly strong correlation with postseason success.

Cleveland Indians
Closer WXRL: Joe Borowski, 1.756 wins, 15th among closers

Strikeout Rate: 6.43 K/9, 17th in the majors

FRAA: 3 runs, tied for 12th in the majors

Joe Borowski has been another closing joke. Borowski is a case-in-point for the relative uselessness of absolute statistics--while he leads the American League in saves, Borowski sports a 5.35 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. Borowski has been clutching onto the last thread of a fraying rope, pitching just well enough to keep his job. Like the Tigers, their defense is nothing spectacular.

The Indians are eerily similar to the Tigers: all hit, average glove, average rotation (C.C. Sabathia notwithstanding) and a horrible closer. Like the Tigers, it's unclear whether that balance will translate well into October baseball.

Milwaukee Brewers
Closer WXRL: Francisco Cordero, 1.750 wins, 16th among closers

Strikeout Rate: 7.16 K/9, 4th in the majors

FRAA: -3 runs, tied for 17th in the majors

This season's version of the Detroit Tigers have succeeded thus far using blistering bats and studs on the mound. Prince Fielder and surprise slugger J.J. Hardy highlight a pounding Brewers offense, and a rotation that includes Ben Sheets and Chris Capuano is one to be reckoned with. Francisco Cordero's relatively low WXRL is, like the other closing Francisco, a bit surprising. I'll have to look into what the deal with Cordero is.

That said, the Brewers defense ranks in the bottom half of the major leagues. Who are the culprits? Except for third base (primarily Braun and Counsell) every infield position is posting negative FRAA scores. The team's offensive stars are also their defensive weakest link, with Fielder sporting a -7 score and Hardy a -6. outfield is mostly solid except for centerfielder Bill Hall, who stumbles in with a -10 FRAA rating. Best way to beat the Brewers? Wear out their starters, and force them to throw you good pitches, preferably on the ground down the middle. If you hit a ground ball or line drive at that infield, there's a fair chance you'll still score a hit.

New York Mets
Closer WXRL: Billy Wagner, 3.043 wins, 4th among closers

Strikeout Rate: 6.77 K/9, 14th in the majors

FRAA: 25 runs, tied for 2nd in the majors

Besides the Red Sox, the Mets may be the most balanced of the contenders. Billy Wagner is nails, and the Metropolitan defense is sparkling. Fulfilling something that was much-discussed in the preseason, the Mets' pitching staff is a bit suspect. Yes, Oliver Perez and John Maine are having great years, with both striking out eight per game, but both sport low BABIP scores and large DIPS differentials, suggesting that both are due for some regression. After Maine and Perez, though, no Mets starter sports a K/9 score over 5. The reintroduction of El Duque and, later in the season, Pedro may change that.

Atlanta Braves
Closer WXRL: Bob Wickman, so low I can’t even find him on the charts, but 1.6 wins last year

Strikeout Rate: 6.78, 13th in the majors

FRAA: -5 runs, 18th in the majors

After looking at the data, I'm not exactly sure I've considered the Braves contenders, but perhaps I should reconsider given the mere three games that separate them from the Mets and their history. Bob Wickman's scores are awful, though that may be due to a prolonged trip to the disabled list. Atlanta's closing situation will require more reexamination later in the season. What is there to say about their pitching? Smoltz may be Smolty, but his spotty healthy along with that of Tim Hudson has decreased their staff's effectiveness. Will good health for those two hurlers improve the Braves' outlook? Maybe. Even if those two aces return to form, it remains to be seen if that awful Braves defense can stop balls from dropping for hits.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Closer WXRL: Takasi Saito, 3.93 wins, 2nd among closers

Strikeout Rate: 7.68 K/9, 1st in the majors

FRAA: -6 runs, 19th in the majors

The story for the Dodgers begins with pitching and ends with pitching. Despite its current patchwork look, the Dodgers rotation has been nails. It says something when All-Star and possible Midsummer Classic starter Brad Penny is at the cellar of the rotation with 6.7 K/9. Likewise, the Dodger bullpen (save the middling Brett Tomko) has been excellent, especially the 8th and 9th inning combination of Broxton and Saito. Saito is currently the second most valuable closer in the major leagues. There was a lot of concern in the preseason that his deceptive delivery may no longer deceive major league hitters, but halfway through the season he continues to baffle batters.

The chink in the Blue Crew armor is the defense. Anecdotally, I've watched a lot of Dodger games (my guilty pleasure after Angels games--nothing beats Vin Scully) where expectedly convertible outs became "and it goes under the glove of [insert name of infielder here]!" Just today, with a man on third, an easy groundout to first became an error and a run when Jeff Kent sent the ball airmail-stle to James Loney. The cause of this defensive inefficacy is likely what plagued the Angels last season: musical chairs position players, especially on the corners of the infield. While Nomar came up as a slick-fielding shortstop, he's been a dud defensively, this season posting negative FRAA scores at both corner bags. His primary predecessor at third Wilsom Betemit, has been below average with the glove, and Jeff Kent may as well wear a cooking mitt on the field with a -12 FRAA. The outfield has been a bloody butcher shop, with Gonzo horrible in left and Pierre (and his oddly small head, but I'll save that for another day) below average in center. I'm unsure if this state of affairs will hold in the infield--give the Dodgers some stability (Nomah at third, Loney at first) and you may see some improvement. However, the outfield will continue to be questionable as Gonzo and Pierre figure to remain starters. Want to beat the Dodgers? Hit the ball hard at infielders not named Furcal, or hit hard, hard, hard, line drives to the outfield.

San Diego Padres
Closer WXRL: Trevor Hoffman, 2.50 wins, 5th among closers

Strikeout Rate: 6.71, 15th in the majors

FRAA: 9 runs, 9th in the majors

Once I acquire Extra Innings, Padres games will become my second guilty pleasure. No bat all arm seems to be a meme for California baseball. Like the Halos, A's, Giants, and Dodgers
the Padres sport a spotty offense. Their success has come because of their pitching, which leads the major leagues in staff ERA with 3.05. Despite that efficiency, they are square in the middle in staff K/9 rate. What gives? Ace Jake Peavy sports an insane 10.2 K/9, and recent All-Star addition Chris Young is close with 9.1 K/9. The answer is in the rest of the staff. This, combined with the fact that three of the starters (Young, Germano and Wells) do not exhibit groundball rates greater than 50%, indicates the Padre rotation is dominated by flyball pitchers. The biggest whiffer of the bullpen is Health Bell, but no other reliever strikes out more than 8 batters per nine. Trevor Hoffman isn't much of a groundballer, and given his low (for a closer) K/9 rate of 6.0, he also seems to be a bit of a flyball man. Does that really matter? No. Hoffman continues to display the artistry of changing speeds remaining effective, and by effective I mean continuing to be an elite closer.

If the Padres aren't a team that powers the ball past batters, their postseason chances may depend on the efficacy of their defense. The infield is solid aside from third base. However, given the flyball propensities of the pitching staff and the cavernous abyss that is Petco Park, this is especially true of the outfield. This may be a problem, as only Jose Cruz has been effective with the glove. Mike Cameron and half of the Brothers Giles are defensive liabilities, the former with -7 runs and the latter with -5. Padres pitchers may want to keep the ball low, or else every ball hit high into the San Diego air may be a reason to hold your breath.

Conclusion
If I were a betting man, I would consider the Angels, Mets and Red Sox as the strong trio of the contenders. The Mets are likely the weakest of the three because of their rotation. What does this mean? If the Halos can hold off the surprisingly surging Mariners and win the Western Division, then we can be optimistic about the team's chances in the playoffs, except if the Halos have to face the Sox in the Division or League Series, or the Metropolitans in the World Series.

The Playoff Readiness Series, Week 14

Last month, I read an amazing book written by the people over at Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Between the Numbers. The name of the book’s final chapter, “Why Doesn’t Billy Beane’s Shit Work in the Playoffs?” was inspired by a quote from A's general manager Billy Beane in Moneyball. When asked why, despite their string of regular season successes, the Oakland A’s have had such dismal success in the playoffs, Beane told author Michael Lewis that the playoffs are a crapshoot. The A’s of the last five or so years have not been defective, but merely the victims of bad luck.

While we in the Halosphere have long since derided that concept, especially after the A’s were swept in last season’s ALCS, Beane is essentially correct. There may be no better proof for that fact than the Cardinals’ World Series victory last season despite an 83-win season. While admitting that, in some part, luck determines the outcome of the playoffs, Baseball Prospectus authors Nate Silver and Dayn Perry decided to determine what factors, if any, correlate with playoff success. They found three possessing a strong correlation, and interestingly none involve the offense.

• Closer WXRL – Because the postseason inherently self-selects the best teams, the outcomes of playoff games are often close. Thus, a club’s ability to hand even the slimmest of leads to a dominant closer can give it a needed edge over a potent opponent. However, they found that it is the closer that matters; the performance of the bullpen as a whole had a much weaker correlation with playoff success.

• Pitcher Staff Strikeout Rate – While Silver and Perry actually found that a pitching staff’s batting average against has a solid correlation with postseason success, they chose to measure the staff’s strikeout rate instead. While a groundout or flyout is just creates the same outcome as a strikeout, they argue (with some proof) that good hitters have an ability to take advantage of finesse pitchers. Because playoff teams tend to have more quality hitters than the average team, a club blessed with power, strikeout-oriented pitchers will be able to neutralize that advantage and pacify playoff offenses.

• Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA) – FRAA is a measure of how many runs a defense prevents over the league average. Silver and Perry argue that a team with both strikeout pitchers and an efficient defense will be very difficult to score against. In order to get a hit against such a team, a hitter must first be able to hit a fair ball off the pitcher, and second, hit the ball past the defense. They argue that defense matters in the playoffs because playoff teams have more quality hitters who can hit the ball harder and put more pressure on the defense.

The intent of this series is to measure, once a week, how the Halos are performing in these three categories. While I realize that I may be getting ahead of myself—the season is barely half over and the AL West is far from won—but I think this season’s team has as good a chance to make the postseason as any since the destined 2002 squad. So, let’s see how the Halos do:

Closer WXRL: Frankie Rodriguez, 2.267 wins, 7th among closers

Strikeout Rate: 7.04 K/9, 6th in the majors

Fielding Runs Above Average: 19 runs, 4th in the majors

As is expected, the Angels’ pitching staff has been pretty effective, ranking among the top 10 in K/9. This success comes despite the struggles suffered by Halo arms, most notably at the back end of the rotation and the front end of the bullpen. The defense is much improved over last year’s squad, which had an FRAA of 9 runs. The source of this improvement is likely due to greater position stability, especially at center field (Matthews) and first base (Kotchman). The most perplexing thing to consider is Frankie’s relatively low WXRL ranking. Last year K-Rod was first among closers with 7.301 wins added. Can his statistics explain the difference?

ERA WHIP DIPS K/9 BB/9 BAA BIPA LVG
2006 1.73 1.10 2.57 12.10 3.45 .197 .275 2.00
2007 2.27 1.17 2.41 12.34 3.52 .211 .301 1.41

Frankie’s current WHIP and ERA are higher than last season, and he is a bit more hittable this year. Oddly, he is striking out more batters while walking more of them. However, Frankie may be a victim of bad luck, as an average BIPA/BABIP is .290. Most interestingly though, it appears that he has been used in less important situations than last year, as his leverage score is significantly lower. Perhaps the Angels, enjoying a more potent offense than last year’s squad, have provided Frankie with fewer save opportunities, or that he has enjoyed more two- or three-run lead opportunities. It may also be possible that Scioscia is using Frankie in more non-save, and thus less important, situations. Nonetheless, because Frankie’s peripherals have on balance remained about the same, it’s possible that he should see some improvement. I have every reason to believe he’ll bounce back and once again be among the top three closers in WXRL.

For a bit of context, let’s see how the 2002 squad stacks up in these categories:

Closer WXRL: Troy Percival, 6.149 wins, 4th among closers

Strikeout Rate: 6.19 K/9, 22nd in the majors

FRAA: 70 runs, 5th among the last 180 teams participating in the playoffs

The factoid that jumps out immediately is the 2002’s squad’s FRAA. I did some additional research, and an FRAA of 70 runs is ridiculous. It is clear that the 2002 World Championship squad was one of the top defensive teams of the past two or three decades. While Percy did not display the dominance of Frankie’s 2005 campaign, he was certainly one of the elite closers in baseball that year. Remember that he was perfect in postseason save opportunities that year (as opposed to say, Rob Nenn). The one factor in which the 2002 squad pales in comparison to this season’s team is pitcher strikeout rate. This is not so surprising. A rotation comprising of Jarrod Washburn, Kevin Appier, Ramon Ortiz, Aaron Sele, and rookie John Lackey/Scott Schoeneweiss is undoubtedly inferior to the squad’s current rotation.

For some contemporary context, let’s examine the team many consider the best in the majors this year, the Boston Red Sox.

Closer WXRL: Jonathan Papelbon, 3.627 wins, 3rd among closers

Strikeout Rate: 7.09 K/9, 5th in the majors

FRAA: 11 runs, tied for 7th in the majors

Paps has been lights-out as expected. The Boston pitching staff is just a hair better in K/9 than the Angels, though admittedly it would be better with a full season of Schilling and Beckett. The Sox defense is a bit less effective than the Angels’, but not by much. A 9 run differential probably means a difference of a win between the two clubs.

Conclusion for Week 14
Admittedly, in any best-of-five or best-of-seven series (especially between teams of comparable ability) luck may be the determining factor of playoff success. That said, if Silver and Perry are correct, and if even a small part of luck is the reside of design, the Halos should be more as equipped for postseason success as any of the current top-ten teams in the game. The rotation is among the elite, and the much-improved Halo defense is at least above average. One cause for concern, however, is closer Frankie Rodriguez. While he has not undergone a drastic regression, his performance has dipped a bit, and it remains to be seen if he can maintain the level of dominance he exhibited last season.

This does not mean that these factors are completely deterministic, however. As the Halos learned in 2005, an entire postseason series can turn on unaccounted-for factors such as the amount of rest between series and blown calls on dropped third strikes by dunce Doug Eddings. Nonetheless, the Halosphere has much reason to be at least guardedly optimistic in its postseason hopes.

Musings

So way to go Wraith with bringing us down after your "bad feeling." Man, what would we do without him?

:-D

In all seriousness, though, the Carrasco DFA is unsurprising yet disappointing all the same. From all accounts Hector was very popular with his teammates, and his second half performance last year was of fairly high quality. So why dump him now? Seems to me that the Front Office is risking a dip in clubhouse chemistry and giving up a potentially solid second-half effort. For comparison, consider that everyone's saying that Kelvim Escobar will undoubtedly improve further in the second half because he's "a second-half guy," by his own admission. Granted, Escobar has been dominant throughout this season anyway, but it does support the notion that it's not unusual for a pitcher to be "off" in the first half of the season and "on" in the second. Perhaps Scioscia/Stoneman felt that Carrasco just wasn't going to turn it around. All the same, I don't think the DFA was the best option. They've used the "phantom injury" card for underperformers (such as Anderson) in the past, so why not now? Why not thoroughly examine him for some sort of injury (elbow inflammation? Shoulder tightness?) stick him on the 15-Day, and then have a nice excuse for a longer rehab assignment? It's not as though Carrasco was truly blocking anyone--yes, Speier's coming back soon, but what about sending down whoever took his spot in the first place? Then again, I suppose that Bootcheck is out of options and DFA'ing Hector was preferable to doing the same to Chris, who by all accounts is the better of the two.

Hillenbrand's DFA, on the other hand, is completely expected. I had very high hopes for him this season, as for some inexplicable reason he's one of my favorites. Don't ask me why--I suppose it's that the guy's go so much potential. He just couldn't get it done, though, so off he goes. I'm happy for him that he at least effectively disproved the notion that he's a permanent clubhouse cancer--despite his comments last week, the Angels insisted that he was a relative class act, all things considered.

I'm just not sure that we'll actually get anything for either player. Carrasco I could see going to a non-contender for a low-level prospect--or perhaps, like Edgardo Alfonzo before him, he'll just fade away into obscurity. I hope not. Hillenbrand's options, though, are rather limited--we know the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Giants, and Diamondbacks won't want their former player back, though I suppose the Giants could possibly be persuaded, given that they don't have any strong options at first. Other teams that have no use for a 1B/DH include the Cardinals, Royals, Pirates, Indians, A's, Dodgers, Mets, Mariners, Devil Rays, Marlins, Nationals, Reds, Rangers, Astros, or Brewers.

Looks like the Yankees really are the only team that could be remotely interested--and even they've said their interest is only mild. Could this be the end for Shea?