Year in Review: Free Agents

Let's do a series of recaps. We'll start off with reviewing last year's Free Agents--that is, the ones we pursued and didn't get, and how they stack up against who we had:

We'll start with the big one, Alfonso Soriano.

Soriano:
EqA.: .286
HR: 33
RBI: 70
OPS+: 123
FRAR: 25

Overall, a fair decline from 2006. Granted, A-Sor spent a good chunk of the season injured, so he did pretty well considering. Now let's compare him to Gary:

Matthews Jr.:
EqA.: .255
HR: 18
RBI: 72
OPS+: 98
FRAR: 21

Aside from his average, Matthews kept up his 2006 performance. Looks like he wound up very inferior to Soriano offensively. Also looks like A-Sor didn't do badly in CF. While Matthews did a fine defensive job--in fact, he likely saved us a win or two through his defense--it seems that we would have benefited more from having Soriano play center.

Now for another one the Cubs got to first: Aramis Ramirez. We didn't even have a chance on this guy, but it's still worth taking a look at.

Ramirez:

EqA: .295
OPS+: 129
HR: 26
RBI: 101
FRAR: 31 (note that this is well above the 22 for an average 3B)
Runs: 72

Figgins:

EqA: .288
OPS+: 123
HR: 3
RBI: 58
FRAR: 1
Runs: 81

I'm not certain that the FRAR on Figgins is correct, as it is so abysmally low. Otherwise, it looks like Figgy and Aramis were pretty comparable this year. However, it also looks like Figgy was better at getting on base and scoring, while Ramirez manufactured/drove in runs more effectively. So it's hard to say which would have been more valuable to the Angels this year. The bottom line is that this offense badly needed power, which Ramirez would have provided very well behind Vladdy, but all the power in the world wouldn't do much good if there was nobody on base. It's a toss-up. That being said, this was really a career year for Figgins, and I think we got quite lucky that he did so well. I'm not confident that he can repeat this performance next year: now might be a good time to trade him in a package for either a ridiculously strong arm, or a big bat. Outfield power would be best.

Come to think of it, that pretty much covers who was available for offense/fielding. I do not think that Mike Piazza is worth looking at, as while it would have been nice to have had his veteran presence, the man spent most of the season on the DL and couldn't produce when he was off of it. In the end he had a comparable performance to Napoli and Mathis--and it's better to give them the experience necessary to someday become catchers of Piazza's magnitude, as opposed to letting Piazza take up those at bats.

Vernon Wells was a rumored trade ready to happen, and I'm glad it didn't. Still, it's likely that he'll (just like Andruw Jones) rebound from his horribly sub-par season to put up monster numbers next year that we could surely use. This is one of those situations where Stoneman gets props for not making the deal ONLY because something unforeseeable happened. If Vernon had mashed this year, this would be a different story, altogether ("It's an entirely different kind of flying...").

From this admittedly small sample size analysis, I think we can give Stoneman a B+ in terms of last offseason's FA moves. We would have done better to sign Soriano, but the fact is that we tried and in the end wound up with a fairly comparable guy. Figgy had a career year to make up for the lack of power at 3B.

The market this year is atrocious, and I do not expect us to land a big bat. I would spend this offseason making smaller, high-impact moves: Trade one of our pitching prospects (or SS prospects) who won't be ready for a while for either a major-league ready or close to it OF masher (i.e., if this were a few years ago, I'd advocate trading for a Milledge or Young)--once Vlad is gone after 2009 (if we don't re-sign him, that is), we have a massive power outage from the OF--I love #77, but having three Reggies run around in the outfield just isn't going to cut it. You could throw Figgins or Aybar into the deal, as it seems that Aybar doesn't have a starting spot with this team going forward, and Figgy's value will almost certainly never be higher. Then I would sign one of the few FA pitchers out there--maybe Carlos Silva--and hope for the best.

Unbelievable

As some of our readers know, Wraith and I recently graduated from Stanford. You can probably guesstimate how we feel about last night's upset over USC. I posted the below on my other blog just now and then realized it is also relevant here.

Let's go Angels--YES. WE. CAN!

Unbelievable.

That's what last night was. Un-be-lievable.

Fires in the Main Quad. The fire department putting it out reluctantly. The entire campus out in full force to celebrate. The Dean of Freshmen and Transfer Students pouring champagne on the players (that part's actually pure speculation, but she did organize it). Horns honking up and down Campus Drive.

Stanford was NOT supposed to beat USC. They were supposed to be creamed. We talked about the game not in terms of "Stanford vs. USC" but "How Badly Will We Lose." So bad that I didn't bother tuning in. My dad--Stanford fan extraordinaire--went out for the night.

And then we won.

It's instant karma in a big way. Goes to show what happens when you treat your team like G-d's gift to all humanity and assume they'll win every time, just because they're entitled to win. What happens when you're so arrogant that your marching band (they of the 20 hours/week to rehearse ONE SONG [fine, two songs]) does its half-time show about "The Play," something completely irrelevant to them, just to rub in their "superiority."

That's what happens. Now let's hope a certain other "superior team" in Blue/Red with a fan-base (and TV station to boot--EastcoastSPinNetwork) that's just as arrogant, gets the same treatment!

Unbelievable.

The Hiatus Was a Bit Too Long

So, my absence from the blog was a bit longer than I anticipated. I'm keeping busy by studying for the all-important LSAT exam, and of course continuing to pay attention to our Halos. I'll try and be a better blogger and update more often.

You may notice the name change. I have always thought that "Light Up That Halo" was a bit too generic and uninspired. One day, while watching an Angels game on FSN, the movie "The Hunt for Red October" sprung to mind for no particular reason when I realized how appropriate the title was for an Angels blog...and a legend was born.

Or not.

T Minus 1 Hour and Tex is Gone--What Now?

I was getting pretty excited about a Stoneman trade for Mark Texiera over the weekend, even though it meant giving up a great 1B (albeit for something better) and one of the stop-gaps in our hole-y rotation. The benefits outweighed the costs, to be sure. Unfortunately, Texas is idiotic (or not, depending on how you think they should view inter-division trading) and decided to except much less for him from Atlanta. Atlanta, too, is rather stupid in this deal, as they're essentially renting Tex for a year and a half, and I haven't seen any particular evidence that he's going to do well in the National League.
So here's what I love about our General Manager--I posted this on Halos Heaven last night, so for readers from over there, please forgive the repeat:

"Is that he finally realizes something needs to be done, only after watching a month and a half of ineptitude. Then he gets ONE big trade stuck in his mind, and when that falls through he essentially gives up, saying "we're good enough as is," after ONE excellent series, taking confidence in 3 games and ignoring the other 30 that preceded, and banking on the wish that we'll miraculously return to May form and win every single one of the last 58 games. He then completely closes up shop just in time for us to start sucking again."


Now, the question may be asked (and HAS been asked by astute HH readers every time I pose this complaint), "What would you have him do? It's not as though there are any other options out there." Wrong. Part of the reason generic fans are not general managers is that they don't have HALF the resources someone like Bill Stoneman and his staff have. It's his JOB to get CREATIVE every now and then--we clearly need something, and that doesn't necessarily mean "shuffling bodies around" as Stoneman seems to think it does (http://losangeles.angels.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070730&content_id=2119293&vkey=news_ana&fext=.jsp&c_id=ana).

So. I've thought through this a bit, and here's a few trades that have been rumored, and that would make a great deal of sense for the Angels. Note that some of these guys are already off the market due to other trades, but in their cases it seems pretty clear that Stoneman didn't even think to pursue them.

1. Mark Texiera. Obvious, and we don't need to go here. This, again, is the one trade Stoneman actually DID try, and he put forth a good effort. Part of me has to wonder, however, if he simply threw his hands in the air and gave up after Texas tried for one of Nick Adenhart or Howie Kendrick. THINK, Bill--didn't you just give up our best defensive catcher for a pitching prospect that's going to do jack for the Angels, but would be a great asset for the Rangers pen sometime in the future?? Don't you have a surplus of SS prospects in AA and AAA-ball? Have you even heard of Sean Rodriguez and Statia? No? How about Terry Evans?

LIKELIHOOD: The Rangers are idiots and the Braves too desperate. Might I add that the Braves are now the offseason Cubs of the 2007 trading deadline?

2. Mike Piazza. I really, really like this idea though it will probably never happen. The negative is that Piazza would be taking up the DH spot, but that's just about the only bad thing for this deal. Think about it: Piazza has KILLED the ball at Angel stadium this year (BAA over .400, I think)--true, he might just see the ball exceptionally well off of Angel pitching, but I still believe it's worth something. He would certainly provide a good degree of protection behind Vlad. Additionally, he can still make appearances behind the plate when necessary--and wouldn't you rather have a lock for the Hall of Fame backing up Jeff Mathis while Napoli is out indefinitely (those hamstring injuries are a real pain, apparently), as opposed to Ryan Budde? He's also got an OPS+ of 112, which is not fantastic per se, but very solid. I imagine a package of middle relief/set-up prospects (Arredondo?) or a future Bobby Crosby replacement (Sean Rodriguez?) would work for Beane. As an added bonus, Piazza'll be gone into Free Agency by the time the other Mike is fully recovered. And won't we get the compensatory draft picks for him?

LIKELIHOOD: Possible, if Stoneman hasn't completely closed shop by now, which he probably has.

3. Jermaine Dye. Not a huge fan of this one. True, he's been hitting better recently and can have a monster OPS+ when on the top of his game, but where do we put him? I don't want him replacing Willits in LF, and he likely can't DH. Perhaps we could put Vlad at permanent DH duties for the rest of the year and stick Jermaine in right. The other question, of course, is who would we have to give up for him?

LIKELIHOOD: Seemed that there was some possibility of this happening, but the Red Sox have effectively quashed that.

4. Troy Glaus. This would be a FANTASTIC trade, were it to go down. I imagine a package similar to what we put together for Texas would work here, perhaps with the addition of another A or AA level pitching prospect. True, Stoneman would perhaps look weak to the fans on this (for having let Troy go in the first place), but a General Manager's job is to make his (or her, to be completely PC here) team better, not to worry about what the fans are going to think of him for a particular deal (and no, that's not ironic in this context).

LIKELIHOOD: Fairly likely, if Stoneman gets his shit together within the next hour.

5. Jon Garland. This would nicely plug the hole in our rotation and provide a quality upgrade to the DL'd Bartolo Colon and, yes, Ervin Santana. Moseley's done an admirable job so far in his spot starts, but we really do need something more long term than that--and Dustin's better out of the bullpen than in the back of the rotation. Still, I don't see this happening. I think a package of Morales and Aybar, maybe with Terry Evans, could get this done.

LIKELIHOOD: For some reason, I really don't see this happening. Garland's not really the Angel type.

6. Morgan Ensberg. Would definitely be a cheap pick-up, and could provide a much needed SLG boost at third if he's healthy and returns to form. Still, I'd be very wary of displacing the streaking Chone Figgins for a guy who may turn out like Shea Hillenbrand. This would be a smart move if earlier in the season.

7. Carl Crawford. Another smart move, but there's really no place for him to go. Essentially a Willits with slightly more power.

So that's basically it. I will concede here that Stoneman is essentially right, to a degree--the team we have RIGHT NOW is probably good ENOUGH to get to October. But we're not going ANYWHERE in October unless teams that we're likely to face similarly don't do anything. And let's see, Bill--who are we likely to face? The Red Sox, Tigers, Mariners (it could happen if they win the Wild Card), Indians, Dodgers, and Braves. All of whom have made SIGNIFICANT moves at the deadline that have significantly STRENGTHENED them. I don't know about you, Bill, but I want to win the WS, and I certainly do NOT want a repeat of the debacle that was the 2004 ALDS sweep at the hands of the Red Sox.

It's go time.

Mourning for Jose--And a hiatus

In terms of stepping up, I've been following the Halos from Germany for roughly the past two weeks. I can only hope that it is my absence that has resulted in such team failures and that upon my return the Angels will not lose a single game the rest of the way.

As with any latter half of July, the trade rumors are swirling. Fans are demanding that Bill Stoneman "do something" about our offensive woes and our not so impressive new record for most consecutive innings without a homerun (and I worry that now we've had TWO in the last two games Bill will declare the situation cured). The LA Times and various other SoCal news services report that Stoney is indeed working the phones. But what has he done so far?

TRADED PERHAPS OUR BEST DEFENSIVE CATCHER FOR A MEDIOCRE RELIEF PITCHER. Now I know Jose couldn't really hit. But he called a damn good game, especially for the not so reliable pitchers such as Bartolo Colon (who also may be departing soon, but that's an entirely different kind of flying, all together ["that's an entirely different kind of flying"]). Now he's being replaced with Jeff Mathis, who I might add apparently cannot hit to save his life. I'm sorry, but we would have been much better off letting Jose go into Free Agency (if that!) and letting Jeffrey attempt to hone his "skills" in AAA.

I can see how trading Jose makes sense. But this club needs help NOW, and this move doesn't do ANYTHING towards that end. If we had packaged Molina with a good prospect (Bulger? Wilson? Statia?) and landed bullpen help, or even if we had gotten straight-up a strong outfield prospect with good power (even if he was a year or two away), then saying farewell to Jose would have been bittersweet but a decent move overall.

Instead, we've thoroughly damaged ourselves.

As I said above, with Wraith gone for a while and me not back in the U.S. for another two days, LUTH is going to have to go on temporary hiatus. Check for updates on the weekend!

That Halo is Dimmed...and a Hiatus

For those of you who've never been to the ESPN SportsZone in Downtown Disney, from the outside, it seems like a pretty nifty place. Rob Fukizaki always makes his Lakers postgame reports with James Worthy and other notables from that small studio they have there (supposedly the set is a bit undersized to exaggerate everyone's size...basketball players and their egos). I went there with my cousin on the way down from LA to catch the second half of the first game against the Twinkies, and was disappointed by what I found. My cousin had told me, rather glowingly, that they had an "awesome" projection-screen TV that they played games on, aside from literally a dozen screens with every game in the majors playing.

The TV was as advertised. The players were basically life-sized. But one would expect that, just a few miles from Angel Stadium, in a facility owned by a media conglomerate that once owned the Angels, that they would put the Halos front and center on the large TV. Nyet, my son. Instead some genius decided that the Mariners-Blue Jays game was more worthwhile. Beside the stomach pains I got from watching the Mariners win yet another game, I also had to squint just to see the Angels lose to the "Piranhas" that was playing on one of the small screens I thought would have been reserved for "other," non-local games.

Once I suffered through near-heartache of watching J.J. Putz continue his streak of perfect save opportunities, we were treated to the insult of the main screen switching over to the Dodger pregame show on KCAL. Excuse me? Are we across the street from the Ravine? What is the deal? The place was populated with plenty of people wearing Angels red, be it in t-shirt or cap form, so I know I'm not crazy when I say--you are not catering to your local constituency! I don't know what genius decided it would be good policy to shun the Halos in the heart of Anaheim, but I don't plan on going back to the SportsZone anytime soon.

Regarding the game itself: what is there to say? In the Angels' Rotation Examination below, I said that Escobar deserves to be considered the club's co-ace, but at this point he may deserve to be the only holder of that title. Lackey is supposed to be a stopper, the guy you lean on to stop slides and give the club a chance to turn things around. Instead, Lackey has put on a demonstration of first-inning "Lackey Innings" in his past two starts. The offense was able to bail him out in his last precarious start against Texas, but when you give up seven runs (admittedly "only" five were earned, though) it's difficult to repeat that.

The team is in a bit of a jam, to say the least, and I pray that Scioscia or one of the veterans in the clubhouse steps up to try and kick the team out of this funk. I probably won't be able to personally see how that plays out, though, as I'm leaving for New York tomorrow evening to visit some friends (and to take advantage to see the House that Ruth Built before they stop using it). I may be able to sneak a blog entry here and there, but likely LUTH will be quiet on my end for about a week. AAW, time for you to step up.

A 3-2 Full Count: The Angels Rotation Examination

Light Up That Halo!'s Rotation Examination series turns to our very own Halos. The Angel rotation was tabbed in the preseason to be among the best in baseball and one of the team's pillars of strength. Many an article on ESPN or Sports Illustrated contained anonymous quotes by various GMs marveling at the fact that Joe Saunders, who would be a number three or four on many teams, could not even crack through the rotation.

Those prognostications were nothing more than speculation. A half-season later, it has become clear that three of the two starters--Lackey, Escobar and Weaver--have been very solid. The other two have been, frankly, a drag on the team. I was at Costco the day of Santana's final start, and a random man came up to me (I was wearing my Howie Kendrick shirt) and lamented that the Halos would probably lose that day with Santana on the mound. Colon and Santana have become so unreliable that there is a temptation to pencil their starts in as losses before the first pitch has even been thrown.

With the rest of the season remaining, let's see how the numbers indicate the rotation is faring.

John Lackey

Year	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	ERC	BABIP	LD%	GB%	IF/F	HR/F	LOB%
2006	3.56	1.26	7.9	3.0	0.59	3.41	3.61	.304	18.1	43.1	6.9	6.3	70.3
2007	2.98	1.16	7.6	2.4	0.81	3.75	3.22	.279	20.3	43.4	7.2	8.9	75.6

The Angels’ anointed ace and first-time All-Star is pitching well this season, mostly due to a more normal BABIP. Put simply, he’s been less unlucky than he was last season. His rate statistics are in line with expectations, and his home run rate is even higher than usual—expect that number to go down. Still, he’s stranding a high number of baserunners, suggesting that he’s going to have a bad outing every now and then when those runners actually do come home. His FIP is also a bit higher than his actual ERA, indicating that he's been leaning on his defense to make outs. However, any regression Lackey should experience would be minimal, especially since his ERC is only a tad higher than his actual ERA. His ERA at the end of the season will be closer to the mid-3s; ace-worthy and among the top ten in the American League, certainly, but perhaps not exactly Cy Young material.

Kelvim Escobar

Year	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	ERC	BABIP	LD%	GB%	IF/F	HR/F	LOB%
2006	3.61	1.28	7.2	2.4	0.83	3.70	3.68	.311	19.0	44.7	6.2	9.0	68.9
2007	3.04	1.14	7.8	2.7	0.50	3.18	2.78	.282	16.7	45.8	11.3	5.6	72.2

The big story this season in the Halo rotation has been the dominant first-half performance of Kelvim Escobar. Lackey may be the staff ace, but Kelvim deserves to be the co-ace if not a close #2 (not to mention the Halo's deserving but snubbed fourth All-Star). Myspacecobar’s strikeout and walk rate are in line with career averages, and his BABIP is about normal, suggesting that he's not a prime candidate for regression. His fielding-independent statistics are pretty close to his actual ERA, while his ERC is even lower. This is not an illusion; he's the real deal, folks. Kelvim's problem has never been his abilities, but rather his capacity to stay healthy. This year, happy Halo fans have been the recipients of the dominant moundsmanship that he can provide while healthy. One area of concern: Kelvim’s home run rate is about thirty points lower than his historical average. Expect him to give up more homers to even those numbers out, despite enjoying an ace-like, mid-3s ERA.

Jered Weaver

Year	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	ERC	BABIP	LD%	GB%	IF/F	HR/F	LOB%
2006	2.56	1.16	8.3	2.6	1.18	3.99	2.78	.236	17.8	30.0	14.0	10.1	86.2
2007	3.36	1.42	6.9	3.4	0.75	3.89	4.39	.306	18.0	35.5	12.6	7.0	74.9

It’s hard to compare Weaver-the-Younger’s current campaign with his incredibly successful rookie season. Few expected him to repeat with a sub-3.00 ERA, but many naysayers in the mainstream sports press picked Weaver to suffer a nasty sophomore slump. Weaver’s been in between those two extremes thus far. With a high WHIP rate he’s been pretty hittable, and a relatively high walk rate suggests he’s having some control problems. Anecdotally, I’ve seen two games Weaver has started this season in person, and early in games he consistently has to work from behind in the count. While he’s certainly had some struggles, he’s also been the victim of some bad luck, sporting a slightly high BABIP. Like Myspacecobar, Weaver’s home run rates are lower than expected, implying that he’s due for a bout of gopheritis at some point. Weaver is still a young guy and will eventually develop into a frontline starter, but for his sophomore season expect an ERA in the high-3s or low-4s. The Angels are incredibly fortunate to have a pitcher who would be the number two starter for most teams in their third slot.

Ervin Santana

Year	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	ERC	BABIP	LD%	GB%	IF/F	HR/F	LOB%
2006	4.28	1.23	6.4	3.2	0.96	4.38	2.78	.245	17.3	38.4	9.5	8.8	67.1
2007	6.22	1.62	6.7	3.2	1.76	5.70	5.73	.328	19.9	35.1	10.4	16.3	67.4

Santana has certainly been the most intriguing and frustrating of the Angels’ starters. Only one year after leading the team in wins, Santana began to carry his road splits home and was sent down to Utah to “find himself” after a disastrous outing against Tampa Bay. As far as I can tell, there are two causes for his problems. First, that high WHIP shows that Santana has been much, much more hittable this season. While that’s understandably important, the root of his problems are his home run rate. It’s staggering to see, but it’s almost twice as high as last year's mark. Correspondingly, twice as many of Santana’s fly balls are leaving the park. The fact that his strikeout and walk rates (not to mention fastball velocity) have been consistent from year-to-year dispels any concerns of injury or loss of command. I think he’s guilty of bad pitch selections that hitters are all too happy to take advantage of. An article from the OC Register claims that Santana, for whatever reason, has been trying expand his repertoire, and as a resort, may have been losing command of his established pitches. Whether that was the cause of his struggles or his attempt to adapt to them is unclear. Either way, here’s hoping that Santana can straighten himself out and make a strong and triumphant return to Anaheim later this season.

Bartolo Colon

Year	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	ERC	BABIP	LD%	GB%	IF/F	HR/F	LOB%
2005	3.48	1.16	6.6	1.8	1.10	3.28	4.10	.279	17.5	43.5	17.2	12.2	74.8
2007	6.38	1.63	6.3	2.3	1.60	5.19	6.49	.351	18.0	39.3	9.5	14.8	66.1

What a difference two years make--from Cy Young winner to an unreliable fifth starter. I had to use the numbers from Colon’s 2005 campaign because he spent much of the 2006 season on the disabled list. Like Santana, Colon has been much more hittable this season, sporting a sky-high 1.62 WHIP. Also similarly to Santana, Colon’s home run rate is fifty points higher than the previous year (though, interestingly, about in line with his dismal 2004 campaign). The similarities between the two end there. Colon’s strikeout rate has remained about the same but his walk rate is about five points higher. These trends are disturbing, but Bart is also sporting a Zeppelin-high BABIP and a decreased groundball rate, suggesting a bit of bad luck. While this could simply be a matter of luck, it is possible Colon is still pitching through the rotator cuff injury that derailed him last season. Anecdotally, he’s been a bit stubborn with his pitch selection and location, insisting on throwing fastballs even when they become predictable, and continuing to pound the corners even if the umpire isn’t giving it to him.

So What's the Diagnosis?
The three: Lackey and Escobar, both with no overwhleming signs of regression, promise to remain solid throughout the remainder of the season. Weaver, on the other hand, is a bit of a wild-card. If he continues to have control problems, he may have some struggles down the stretch. Alternatively, he could compensate for those problems and give the Angels a performance worthy of a number-two starter on most other teams.

The two: With Santana sent to Salt Lake for some self-realization, bullpen sessions and incense-burning, Joe Saunders will take his place in the rotation. How he will fare in the major leagues is difficult to predict. Saunders has not had a great season with the Bees thus far, although admittedly his numbers are skewed given the hitter-friendly nature of the California League. However, the starts he's provided when he was called up to spell an ailing starter have been solid. The half-season of starts he provided last year were exemplary and would have gotten more press had rotation-mate Jered Weaver made such an amazing rookie run. Not to stray from the sabermetric, but perhaps Saunders will steel himself since he has another extended shot in the bigs. With Colon a free agent after this season, and with the Angels unlikely to try to retain his services, it is almost a given that Saunders will be a full-time starter in 2008. Hopefully he'll provide the Halos with what they've been lacking--reliable production from the fourth spot--and create a half-season of success to build upon for next year.

Colon is more problematic than Santana because he is more difficult to send down. As a top-line free agent and a former Cy Young winner, the Halo front office would be hard-pressed to send him down to the minors. More likely, he will attempt to rectify his problems, be they injury-based or mechanical, in the major leagues. Hopefully for the Angels, who have been struggling as of late and have the surging Mariners in their rear-view mirrors, he'll settle in as at least a reliable starter if not the dominant pitcher he once was.